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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers rising together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still