A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
